Ecuador's road to the final

Ecuador have been knocked out of the World Cup. Here is the run that ended their tournament.

If they win Group E

1. Round of 32projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland16% likely
   or Paraguay, Türkiye
   51% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇫🇷France50% likely
   or Senegal, Norway
   28% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇳🇱Netherlands18% likely
   or Brazil, Morocco
   33% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇪🇸Spain40% likely
   or Argentina, England
   20% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina25% likely
   or England, Spain
   18% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group E

1. Round of 32projected
   🇸🇳Senegal30% likely
   or Norway, France
   39% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇷Brazil31% likely
   or Morocco, Netherlands
   30% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England38% likely
   or Mexico, Croatia
   26% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina38% likely
   or Spain, Portugal
   22% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain28% likely
   or France, Argentina
   16% to advance

If they advance from Group E as a best third

1. Round of 32Result · Eliminated
   🇲🇽MexicoLost 0–2
   Knocked out of the World Cup
2. Round of 32projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England55% likely
   or Croatia, Panama
   28% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🇺🇸USA34% likely
   or Türkiye, Australia
   47% to advance
4. Round of 32projected
   🇧🇪Belgium49% likely
   or Egypt, IR Iran
   39% to advance
5. Round of 32projected
   🇨🇭Switzerland45% likely
   or Canada, Qatar
   50% to advance
6. Round of 32projected
   🇵🇹Portugal44% likely
   or Colombia, Congo DR
   35% to advance
7. Round of 16projected
   🇲🇽Mexico35% likely
   or Korea Republic, Uruguay
   44% to advance
8. Round of 16projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England47% likely
   or Croatia, Portugal
   27% to advance
9. Round of 16projected
   🇺🇸USA25% likely
   or Türkiye, Australia
   51% to advance
10. Round of 16projected
    🇧🇪Belgium36% likely
    or IR Iran, Egypt
    40% to advance
11. Round of 16projected
    🇨🇭Switzerland30% likely
    or Canada, Egypt
    45% to advance
12. Round of 16projected
    🇵🇹Portugal31% likely
    or Colombia, Croatia
    34% to advance
13. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain45% likely
    or England, Argentina
    20% to advance
14. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇧🇷Brazil20% likely
    or Morocco, France
    28% to advance
15. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina49% likely
    or Spain, Belgium
    23% to advance
16. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇫🇷France30% likely
    or Netherlands, Brazil
    24% to advance
17. Semi-finalsprojected
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England26% likely
    or France, Brazil
    22% to advance
18. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina39% likely
    or Spain, Portugal
    21% to advance
19. Finalprojected
    🇪🇸Spain30% likely
    or France, Argentina
    16% to advance
20. Finalprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina23% likely
    or England, France
    17% to advance