Iraq's road to the final

Iraq finished 1st in Group I. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group I

1. Round of 32projected
   🇸🇪Sweden17% likely
   or Japan, Tunisia
   29% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇩🇪Germany29% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   21% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇲🇦Morocco19% likely
   or Netherlands, Brazil
   16% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇪🇸Spain38% likely
   or Argentina, Belgium
   7% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina29% likely
   or Spain, England
   5% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group I

1. Round of 32projected
   🇪🇨Ecuador30% likely
   or Côte d'Ivoire, Germany
   28% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇷Brazil31% likely
   or Morocco, Netherlands
   14% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England36% likely
   or Mexico, Croatia
   12% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina43% likely
   or Portugal, Spain
   8% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇫🇷France27% likely
   or Spain, Argentina
   0% to advance

If they advance from Group I as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🇲🇽Mexico47% likely
   or Korea Republic, Czechia
   26% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England57% likely
   or Croatia, Panama
   14% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🇺🇸USA35% likely
   or Türkiye, Australia
   24% to advance
4. Round of 32projected
   🇧🇪Belgium47% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   20% to advance
5. Round of 32projected
   🇨🇭Switzerland43% likely
   or Canada, Qatar
   26% to advance
6. Round of 32projected
   🇵🇹Portugal42% likely
   or Colombia, Congo DR
   18% to advance
7. Round of 16projected
   🇲🇽Mexico36% likely
   or Korea Republic, Czechia
   22% to advance
8. Round of 16projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England47% likely
   or Croatia, Portugal
   13% to advance
9. Round of 16projected
   🇺🇸USA26% likely
   or Australia, Türkiye
   26% to advance
10. Round of 16projected
    🇧🇪Belgium36% likely
    or IR Iran, Egypt
    19% to advance
11. Round of 16projected
    🇨🇭Switzerland31% likely
    or Canada, IR Iran
    23% to advance
12. Round of 16projected
    🇵🇹Portugal29% likely
    or Colombia, Croatia
    17% to advance
13. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain46% likely
    or England, Argentina
    8% to advance
14. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇫🇷France20% likely
    or Brazil, Morocco
    13% to advance
15. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina48% likely
    or Spain, Belgium
    11% to advance
16. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇫🇷France31% likely
    or Morocco, Brazil
    8% to advance
17. Semi-finalsprojected
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England29% likely
    or France, Morocco
    7% to advance
18. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina36% likely
    or Portugal, Spain
    8% to advance
19. Finalprojected
    🇪🇸Spain36% likely
    or France, Argentina
    11% to advance
20. Finalprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina31% likely
    or Spain, England
    23% to advance