New Zealand's road to the final

In the Round of 320% to reach the final0% to win it all

New Zealand finished 1st in Group G. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group G

  1. Round of 32projected
    Czechia18% likely
    or South Africa, Korea Republic
    19% to advance
  2. Round of 16projected
    USA25% likely
    or Tรผrkiye, Australia
    14% to advance
  3. Quarter-finalsprojected
    Spain47% likely
    or England, Argentina
    5% to advance
  4. Semi-finalsprojected
    France40% likely
    or Morocco, Brazil
    2% to advance
  5. Final
    Franceconfirmed
    0% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group G

  1. Round of 32projected
    USA27% likely
    or Australia, Tรผrkiye
    13% to advance
  2. Round of 16projected
    Argentina54% likely
    or Spain, Uruguay
    7% to advance
  3. Quarter-finalsprojected
    Portugal18% likely
    or Colombia, Switzerland
    8% to advance
  4. Semi-finalsprojected
    England29% likely
    or Brazil, France
    5% to advance
  5. Finalprojected
    Spain25% likely
    or Argentina, Switzerland
    0% to advance

If they advance from Group G as a best third

  1. Round of 32projected
    France57% likely
    or Senegal, Norway
    6% to advance
  2. Round of 32projected
    Switzerland47% likely
    or Canada, Qatar
    16% to advance
  3. Round of 16projected
    Germany30% likely
    or Ecuador, Cรดte d'Ivoire
    13% to advance
  4. Round of 16projected
    Portugal31% likely
    or Colombia, Croatia
    9% to advance
  5. Quarter-finalsprojected
    Netherlands19% likely
    or Brazil, Morocco
    10% to advance
  6. Quarter-finalsprojected
    Argentina49% likely
    or Spain, Belgium
    6% to advance
  7. Semi-finalsprojected
    Spain36% likely
    or England, Croatia
    9% to advance
  8. Semi-finalsprojected
    England33% likely
    or France, Mexico
    7% to advance
  9. Finalprojected
    France50% likely
    or Spain, Switzerland
    0% to advance
  10. Finalprojected
    England50% likely
    or France
    0% to advance
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