Saudi Arabia's road to the final

Saudi Arabia finished 1st in Group H. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group H

1. Round of 32projected
   🇦🇹Austria33% likely
   or Algeria, Argentina
   27% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇭🇷Croatia22% likely
   or England, Portugal
   18% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇧🇪Belgium24% likely
   or USA, Egypt
   20% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇫🇷France34% likely
   or Netherlands, Morocco
   13% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina35% likely
   or Spain, England
   4% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group H

1. Round of 32projected
   🇦🇷Argentina65% likely
   or Austria, Algeria
   14% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇪Belgium21% likely
   or USA, IR Iran
   23% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇵🇹Portugal20% likely
   or Colombia, Switzerland
   17% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England26% likely
   or France, Morocco
   11% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain32% likely
   or France, Argentina
   4% to advance

If they advance from Group H as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🇫🇷France56% likely
   or Norway, Senegal
   14% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🇲🇽Mexico47% likely
   or Korea Republic, Czechia
   27% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England55% likely
   or Croatia, Panama
   14% to advance
4. Round of 32projected
   🇧🇪Belgium47% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   22% to advance
5. Round of 16projected
   🇩🇪Germany28% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   24% to advance
6. Round of 16projected
   🇲🇽Mexico32% likely
   or Brazil, Morocco
   26% to advance
7. Round of 16projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England48% likely
   or Croatia, Colombia
   14% to advance
8. Round of 16projected
   🇺🇸USA23% likely
   or Australia, Türkiye
   27% to advance
9. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇧🇷Brazil20% likely
   or Morocco, Netherlands
   17% to advance
10. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain46% likely
    or England, Argentina
    9% to advance
11. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇧🇷Brazil20% likely
    or Morocco, France
    14% to advance
12. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇫🇷France34% likely
    or Netherlands, Brazil
    13% to advance
13. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain39% likely
    or England, Belgium
    13% to advance
14. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina37% likely
    or Spain, Portugal
    8% to advance
15. Finalprojected
    🇪🇸Spain33% likely
    or France, Netherlands
    8% to advance
16. Finalprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina20% likely
    or England, France
    8% to advance