Saudi Arabia's road to the final

Saudi Arabia finished 1st in Group H. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group H

1. Round of 32projected
   🇦🇹Austria32% likely
   or Algeria, Argentina
   29% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇭🇷Croatia22% likely
   or England, Portugal
   19% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇧🇪Belgium25% likely
   or USA, IR Iran
   22% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇫🇷France34% likely
   or Morocco, Netherlands
   11% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain27% likely
   or Argentina, England
   6% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group H

1. Round of 32projected
   🇦🇷Argentina65% likely
   or Austria, Algeria
   15% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇪Belgium20% likely
   or USA, IR Iran
   26% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇵🇹Portugal22% likely
   or Switzerland, Colombia
   18% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England28% likely
   or France, Brazil
   13% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain36% likely
   or France, Argentina
   7% to advance

If they advance from Group H as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🇫🇷France57% likely
   or Senegal, Norway
   15% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🇲🇽Mexico45% likely
   or Korea Republic, South Africa
   30% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England54% likely
   or Croatia, Panama
   17% to advance
4. Round of 32projected
   🇧🇪Belgium49% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   23% to advance
5. Round of 16projected
   🇩🇪Germany27% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   26% to advance
6. Round of 16projected
   🇲🇽Mexico29% likely
   or Brazil, Morocco
   25% to advance
7. Round of 16projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England50% likely
   or Croatia, Colombia
   15% to advance
8. Round of 16projected
   🇺🇸USA25% likely
   or Australia, Türkiye
   29% to advance
9. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇳🇱Netherlands20% likely
   or Brazil, Morocco
   18% to advance
10. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain48% likely
    or England, Argentina
    9% to advance
11. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇧🇷Brazil20% likely
    or Morocco, France
    15% to advance
12. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇫🇷France36% likely
    or Morocco, Netherlands
    10% to advance
13. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain48% likely
    or England, Argentina
    7% to advance
14. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina38% likely
    or Spain, Portugal
    11% to advance
15. Finalprojected
    🇫🇷France29% likely
    or Spain, Argentina
    8% to advance
16. Finalprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina28% likely
    or France, England
    13% to advance