Scotland's road to the final

In the Round of 320% to reach the final0% to win it all

Scotland finished 1st in Group C. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group C

  1. Round of 32projected
    Japan30% likely
    or Netherlands, Sweden
    34% to advance
  2. Round of 16projected
    France22% likely
    or Norway, Senegal
    26% to advance
  3. Quarter-finalsprojected
    England37% likely
    or Mexico, Croatia
    17% to advance
  4. Semi-finalsprojected
    Argentina38% likely
    or Spain, Portugal
    15% to advance
  5. Finalprojected
    Spain27% likely
    or France, Argentina
    9% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group C

  1. Round of 32projected
    Netherlands44% likely
    or Japan, Sweden
    28% to advance
  2. Round of 16projected
    Mexico20% likely
    or Switzerland, Canada
    38% to advance
  3. Quarter-finalsprojected
    France39% likely
    or Germany, Morocco
    18% to advance
  4. Semi-finalsprojected
    Spain40% likely
    or Argentina, England
    14% to advance
  5. Finalprojected
    Argentina25% likely
    or England, Spain
    10% to advance

If they advance from Group C as a best third

  1. Round of 32projected
    Germany44% likely
    or Ecuador, Cรดte d'Ivoire
    33% to advance
  2. Round of 32projected
    France52% likely
    or Norway, Senegal
    20% to advance
  3. Round of 32projected
    Mexico50% likely
    or Korea Republic, Czechia
    33% to advance
  4. Round of 16projected
    Germany27% likely
    or Ecuador, Cรดte d'Ivoire
    42% to advance
  5. Round of 16projected
    France51% likely
    or Senegal, Norway
    19% to advance
  6. Round of 16projected
    England48% likely
    or Croatia, Portugal
    19% to advance
  7. Quarter-finalsprojected
    Brazil22% likely
    or Morocco, Netherlands
    21% to advance
  8. Quarter-finalsprojected
    Brazil22% likely
    or Morocco, France
    18% to advance
  9. Semi-finalsprojected
    Spain39% likely
    or Argentina, England
    13% to advance
  10. Semi-finalsprojected
    Argentina36% likely
    or Spain, Portugal
    13% to advance
  11. Finalprojected
    Spain30% likely
    or France, Argentina
    11% to advance
  12. Finalprojected
    Argentina25% likely
    or England, France
    14% to advance
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