Uruguay's road to the final

Uruguay finished 1st in Group H. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group H

1. Round of 32projected
   🇦🇹Austria32% likely
   or Algeria, Argentina
   51% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇭🇷Croatia22% likely
   or England, Portugal
   38% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇧🇪Belgium25% likely
   or USA, IR Iran
   43% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇫🇷France32% likely
   or Netherlands, Morocco
   30% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain25% likely
   or Argentina, England
   18% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group H

1. Round of 32projected
   🇦🇷Argentina65% likely
   or Austria, Algeria
   29% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇪Belgium21% likely
   or IR Iran, USA
   50% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇵🇹Portugal21% likely
   or Colombia, Switzerland
   37% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England27% likely
   or France, Morocco
   26% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain32% likely
   or France, Argentina
   19% to advance

If they advance from Group H as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🇫🇷France56% likely
   or Senegal, Norway
   31% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🇲🇽Mexico46% likely
   or Korea Republic, Czechia
   52% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England52% likely
   or Croatia, Panama
   34% to advance
4. Round of 32projected
   🇧🇪Belgium47% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   45% to advance
5. Round of 16projected
   🇩🇪Germany28% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   49% to advance
6. Round of 16projected
   🇲🇽Mexico31% likely
   or Brazil, Morocco
   45% to advance
7. Round of 16projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England49% likely
   or Croatia, Portugal
   30% to advance
8. Round of 16projected
   🇺🇸USA24% likely
   or Türkiye, Australia
   52% to advance
9. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇳🇱Netherlands20% likely
   or Morocco, Brazil
   39% to advance
10. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain51% likely
    or England, Argentina
    21% to advance
11. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇲🇦Morocco20% likely
    or Brazil, France
    33% to advance
12. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇫🇷France32% likely
    or Netherlands, Morocco
    29% to advance
13. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain41% likely
    or Argentina, Belgium
    23% to advance
14. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina40% likely
    or Spain, Portugal
    25% to advance
15. Finalprojected
    🇪🇸Spain31% likely
    or France, Argentina
    20% to advance
16. Finalprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina23% likely
    or England, France
    21% to advance