Uruguay's road to the final

Uruguay finished 1st in Group H. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group H

1. Round of 32projected
   🇦🇹Austria33% likely
   or Algeria, Argentina
   51% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇭🇷Croatia22% likely
   or England, Portugal
   38% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇧🇪Belgium25% likely
   or USA, IR Iran
   44% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇫🇷France32% likely
   or Netherlands, Morocco
   29% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain25% likely
   or Argentina, England
   18% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group H

1. Round of 32projected
   🇦🇷Argentina65% likely
   or Austria, Algeria
   29% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇪Belgium21% likely
   or IR Iran, USA
   49% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇵🇹Portugal21% likely
   or Colombia, Switzerland
   38% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England28% likely
   or France, Brazil
   27% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain33% likely
   or France, Argentina
   19% to advance

If they advance from Group H as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🇫🇷France56% likely
   or Senegal, Norway
   31% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🇲🇽Mexico46% likely
   or Korea Republic, Czechia
   52% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England54% likely
   or Croatia, Panama
   34% to advance
4. Round of 32projected
   🇧🇪Belgium47% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   45% to advance
5. Round of 16projected
   🇩🇪Germany28% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   49% to advance
6. Round of 16projected
   🇲🇽Mexico30% likely
   or Brazil, Morocco
   42% to advance
7. Round of 16projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England49% likely
   or Croatia, Portugal
   31% to advance
8. Round of 16projected
   🇺🇸USA24% likely
   or Türkiye, Australia
   53% to advance
9. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇳🇱Netherlands20% likely
   or Morocco, Brazil
   38% to advance
10. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain50% likely
    or England, Argentina
    21% to advance
11. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇧🇷Brazil19% likely
    or Morocco, France
    33% to advance
12. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇫🇷France33% likely
    or Netherlands, Brazil
    30% to advance
13. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain42% likely
    or England, Argentina
    22% to advance
14. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina40% likely
    or Spain, Portugal
    25% to advance
15. Finalprojected
    🇪🇸Spain30% likely
    or France, Argentina
    19% to advance
16. Finalprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina28% likely
    or France, England
    19% to advance