Argentina's road to the final

Argentina finished 1st in Group J. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group J

1. Round of 32Result · Won
   🇺🇾UruguayWon 3–2
   Advanced to the next round
2. Round of 16Result · Won
   🇧🇪BelgiumWon 3–2
   Advanced to the next round
3. Quarter-finalsResult · Won
   🇵🇹PortugalWon 3–1
   Advanced to the next round
4. Semi-finalsResult · Won
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandWon 2–1
   Advanced to the next round
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain36% likely
   or France, England
   60% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group J

1. Round of 32projected
   🇪🇸Spain69% likely
   or Uruguay, Saudi Arabia
   60% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇭🇷Croatia22% likely
   or England, Portugal
   77% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇧🇪Belgium26% likely
   or USA, IR Iran
   83% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇫🇷France32% likely
   or Netherlands, Morocco
   71% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England22% likely
   or Spain, France
   66% to advance

If they advance from Group J as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England60% likely
   or Croatia, Panama
   70% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🇺🇸USA35% likely
   or Türkiye, Australia
   88% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🇧🇪Belgium45% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   84% to advance
4. Round of 32projected
   🇨🇭Switzerland46% likely
   or Canada, Qatar
   88% to advance
5. Round of 32projected
   🇵🇹Portugal41% likely
   or Colombia, Congo DR
   81% to advance
6. Round of 16projected
   🇲🇽Mexico33% likely
   or Korea Republic, Uruguay
   83% to advance
7. Round of 16projected
   🇺🇸USA25% likely
   or Australia, Türkiye
   87% to advance
8. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇪Belgium34% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   83% to advance
9. Round of 16projected
   🇨🇭Switzerland29% likely
   or Belgium, IR Iran
   85% to advance
10. Round of 16projected
    🇵🇹Portugal30% likely
    or Colombia, Croatia
    78% to advance
11. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain51% likely
    or England, Croatia
    61% to advance
12. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇧🇷Brazil19% likely
    or Morocco, France
    75% to advance
13. Quarter-finalsResult · Won
    🇪🇸SpainWon 3–1
    Advanced to the next round
14. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇫🇷France33% likely
    or Morocco, Brazil
    70% to advance
15. Semi-finalsResult · Won
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandWon 2–1
    Advanced to the next round
16. Semi-finalsResult · Won
    🇵🇹PortugalWon 2–1
    Advanced to the next round
17. Finalprojected
    🇪🇸Spain35% likely
    or France, England
    60% to advance
18. Finalprojected
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England21% likely
    or Spain, France
    66% to advance