Japan's road to the final

Japan have been knocked out of the World Cup. Here is the run that ended their tournament.

If they win Group F

1. Round of 32projected
   🇲🇦Morocco34% likely
   or Brazil, Scotland
   47% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇲🇽Mexico20% likely
   or Switzerland, Canada
   60% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇫🇷France41% likely
   or Germany, Netherlands
   36% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇪🇸Spain40% likely
   or Argentina, Belgium
   27% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina26% likely
   or England, France
   24% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group F

1. Round of 32Result · Eliminated
   🇧🇷BrazilLost 1–2
   Knocked out of the World Cup
2. Round of 16projected
   🇫🇷France22% likely
   or Senegal, Norway
   47% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England38% likely
   or Mexico, Croatia
   35% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina38% likely
   or Spain, Portugal
   29% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain29% likely
   or France, Argentina
   24% to advance

If they advance from Group F as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🇩🇪Germany44% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   56% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🇫🇷France58% likely
   or Senegal, Norway
   34% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🇲🇽Mexico45% likely
   or Korea Republic, Czechia
   58% to advance
4. Round of 32projected
   🇺🇸USA34% likely
   or Türkiye, Australia
   58% to advance
5. Round of 32projected
   🇨🇭Switzerland44% likely
   or Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina
   60% to advance
6. Round of 16projected
   🇩🇪Germany29% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   54% to advance
7. Round of 16projected
   🇫🇷France49% likely
   or Norway, Senegal
   36% to advance
8. Round of 16projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England48% likely
   or Croatia, Portugal
   35% to advance
9. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇪Belgium38% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   50% to advance
10. Round of 16projected
    🇵🇹Portugal33% likely
    or Colombia, Croatia
    44% to advance
11. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇳🇱Netherlands24% likely
    or Morocco, Brazil
    43% to advance
12. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain43% likely
    or England, Argentina
    28% to advance
13. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇧🇷Brazil23% likely
    or Morocco, France
    39% to advance
14. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina50% likely
    or Spain, Belgium
    30% to advance
15. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇫🇷France32% likely
    or Brazil, Netherlands
    30% to advance
16. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain39% likely
    or Argentina, Belgium
    28% to advance
17. Semi-finalsprojected
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England27% likely
    or France, Morocco
    33% to advance
18. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina43% likely
    or Spain, England
    30% to advance
19. Finalprojected
    🇪🇸Spain27% likely
    or France, England
    17% to advance
20. Finalprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina25% likely
    or England, France
    24% to advance