Japan's road to the final

Japan finished 2nd in Group F. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

Path to the final

1. Round of 32
   🇧🇷Brazilconfirmed
   35% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇳🇴Norway54% likely
   or Côte d'Ivoire
   64% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England61% likely
   or Mexico, Ecuador
   36% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina64% likely
   or Colombia, Switzerland
   32% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇫🇷France34% likely
   or Spain, Morocco
   31% to advance