Norway's road to the final

Norway have been knocked out of the World Cup. Here is the run that ended their tournament.

If they win Group I

1. Round of 32projected
   🇸🇪Sweden17% likely
   or Tunisia, Japan
   59% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇩🇪Germany29% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   51% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇳🇱Netherlands20% likely
   or Brazil, Morocco
   40% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇪🇸Spain40% likely
   or Argentina, Belgium
   25% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina24% likely
   or France, England
   21% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group I

1. Round of 32Result · Won
   🇪🇨EcuadorWon 2–1
   Advanced to the next round
2. Round of 16Result · Won
   🇧🇷BrazilWon 2–1
   Advanced to the next round
3. Quarter-finalsResult · Eliminated
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandLost 1–2
   Knocked out of the World Cup
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina39% likely
   or Spain, Portugal
   27% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain29% likely
   or France, Argentina
   21% to advance

If they advance from Group I as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🇲🇽Mexico46% likely
   or Korea Republic, Czechia
   54% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England56% likely
   or Croatia, Panama
   33% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🇺🇸USA36% likely
   or Türkiye, Australia
   55% to advance
4. Round of 32projected
   🇧🇪Belgium47% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   47% to advance
5. Round of 32projected
   🇨🇭Switzerland43% likely
   or Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina
   58% to advance
6. Round of 32projected
   🇵🇹Portugal41% likely
   or Colombia, Congo DR
   44% to advance
7. Round of 16projected
   🇲🇽Mexico35% likely
   or Korea Republic, Czechia
   51% to advance
8. Round of 16projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England46% likely
   or Croatia, Colombia
   35% to advance
9. Round of 16projected
   🇺🇸USA25% likely
   or Türkiye, Australia
   56% to advance
10. Round of 16projected
    🇧🇪Belgium37% likely
    or IR Iran, Egypt
    48% to advance
11. Round of 16projected
    🇨🇭Switzerland30% likely
    or Canada, IR Iran
    52% to advance
12. Round of 16projected
    🇵🇹Portugal28% likely
    or Colombia, Croatia
    43% to advance
13. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain47% likely
    or England, Argentina
    23% to advance
14. Quarter-finalsResult · Eliminated
    🇫🇷FranceLost 1–2
    Knocked out of the World Cup
15. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina48% likely
    or Spain, Belgium
    28% to advance
16. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇫🇷France36% likely
    or Netherlands, Brazil
    30% to advance
17. Semi-finalsprojected
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England29% likely
    or France, Brazil
    28% to advance
18. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina38% likely
    or Spain, Portugal
    27% to advance
19. Finalprojected
    🇪🇸Spain29% likely
    or France, Argentina
    21% to advance
20. Finalprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina26% likely
    or England, Spain
    22% to advance