Qatar's road to the final

Qatar finished 1st in Group B. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group B

1. Round of 32projected
   🇪🇬Egypt17% likely
   or IR Iran, Algeria
   31% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇵🇹Portugal31% likely
   or Colombia, Croatia
   18% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina48% likely
   or Spain, Belgium
   11% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England30% likely
   or France, Brazil
   10% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain40% likely
   or France, Belgium
   5% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group B

1. Round of 32projected
   🇰🇷Korea Republic28% likely
   or Mexico, Czechia
   31% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇳🇱Netherlands26% likely
   or Morocco, Brazil
   15% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇫🇷France41% likely
   or Germany, Norway
   13% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇪🇸Spain39% likely
   or Argentina, Belgium
   8% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina23% likely
   or England, Spain
   7% to advance

If they advance from Group B as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🇩🇪Germany40% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   27% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🇺🇸USA36% likely
   or Australia, Türkiye
   24% to advance
3. Round of 16projected
   🇫🇷France45% likely
   or Belgium, Senegal
   11% to advance
4. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇪Belgium36% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   21% to advance
5. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇰🇷Korea Republic27% likely
   or Netherlands, Bosnia and Herzegovina
   27% to advance
6. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇪🇸Spain47% likely
   or England, Argentina
   8% to advance
7. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇫🇷France30% likely
   or Brazil, Netherlands
   13% to advance
8. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇪🇸Spain67% likely
   or Croatia
   0% to advance
9. Finalprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina24% likely
   or England, Spain
   8% to advance