Qatar's road to the final

In the Round of 320% to reach the final0% to win it all

Qatar finished 1st in Group B. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group B

  1. Round of 32projected
    Egypt17% likely
    or IR Iran, Algeria
    31% to advance
  2. Round of 16projected
    Portugal31% likely
    or Colombia, Croatia
    18% to advance
  3. Quarter-finalsprojected
    Argentina48% likely
    or Spain, Belgium
    11% to advance
  4. Semi-finalsprojected
    England26% likely
    or France, Morocco
    10% to advance
  5. Finalprojected
    Spain30% likely
    or France, Argentina
    7% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group B

  1. Round of 32projected
    Korea Republic28% likely
    or Mexico, Czechia
    31% to advance
  2. Round of 16projected
    Netherlands26% likely
    or Morocco, Brazil
    16% to advance
  3. Quarter-finalsprojected
    France41% likely
    or Germany, Senegal
    13% to advance
  4. Semi-finalsprojected
    Spain37% likely
    or England, Argentina
    9% to advance
  5. Finalprojected
    Argentina24% likely
    or France, England
    3% to advance

If they advance from Group B as a best third

  1. Round of 32projected
    Germany42% likely
    or Ecuador, Cรดte d'Ivoire
    25% to advance
  2. Round of 32projected
    USA36% likely
    or Tรผrkiye, Australia
    24% to advance
  3. Round of 16projected
    France63% likely
    or Belgium, Senegal
    12% to advance
  4. Round of 16projected
    Belgium36% likely
    or IR Iran, Egypt
    21% to advance
  5. Quarter-finalsprojected
    Netherlands25% likely
    or Morocco, Mexico
    17% to advance
  6. Quarter-finalsprojected
    Spain47% likely
    or England, Argentina
    9% to advance
  7. Semi-finalsprojected
    France35% likely
    or Netherlands, Brazil
    12% to advance
  8. Semi-finalsprojected
    England50% likely
    or Spain
    0% to advance
  9. Finalprojected
    Argentina22% likely
    or England, France
    13% to advance
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