Spain's road to the final

Spain finished 1st in Group H. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group H

1. Round of 32Result · Won
   🇦🇹AustriaWon 3–0
   Advanced to the next round
2. Round of 16Result · Won
   🇭🇷CroatiaWon 1–0
   Advanced to the next round
3. Quarter-finalsResult · Won
   🇧🇪BelgiumWon 2–1
   Advanced to the next round
4. Semi-finalsResult · Won
   🇫🇷FranceWon 2–0
   Advanced to the next round
5. Finalprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina33% likely
   or England, France
   65% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group H

1. Round of 32projected
   🇦🇷Argentina65% likely
   or Austria, Algeria
   67% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇪Belgium21% likely
   or USA, IR Iran
   88% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇵🇹Portugal21% likely
   or Colombia, Switzerland
   80% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England27% likely
   or France, Brazil
   72% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇫🇷France24% likely
   or Argentina, England
   69% to advance

If they advance from Group H as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🇫🇷France56% likely
   or Norway, Senegal
   71% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🇲🇽Mexico46% likely
   or Korea Republic, Czechia
   88% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England54% likely
   or Croatia, Panama
   75% to advance
4. Round of 32projected
   🇧🇪Belgium47% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   85% to advance
5. Round of 16projected
   🇩🇪Germany27% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   87% to advance
6. Round of 16projected
   🇲🇽Mexico30% likely
   or Scotland, Morocco
   82% to advance
7. Round of 16projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England48% likely
   or Croatia, Portugal
   73% to advance
8. Round of 16projected
   🇺🇸USA24% likely
   or Australia, Türkiye
   89% to advance
9. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇳🇱Netherlands20% likely
   or Morocco, Brazil
   82% to advance
10. Quarter-finalsResult · Won
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandWon 2–1
    Advanced to the next round
11. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇧🇷Brazil19% likely
    or Morocco, France
    76% to advance
12. Semi-finalsResult · Won
    🇫🇷FranceWon 2–0
    Advanced to the next round
13. Semi-finalsResult · Won
    🇦🇷ArgentinaWon 2–0
    Advanced to the next round
14. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina44% likely
    or Portugal, Belgium
    69% to advance
15. Finalprojected
    🇫🇷France26% likely
    or Argentina, England
    70% to advance
16. Finalprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina32% likely
    or England, France
    66% to advance