Spain's road to the final

Spain finished 1st in Group H. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group H

1. Round of 32Result · Won
   🇦🇹AustriaWon 3–0
   Advanced to the next round
2. Round of 16Result · Won
   🇭🇷CroatiaWon 1–0
   Advanced to the next round
3. Quarter-finalsResult · Won
   🇧🇪BelgiumWon 2–1
   Advanced to the next round
4. Semi-finalsResult · Won
   🇫🇷FranceWon 2–0
   Advanced to the next round
5. Finalprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina33% likely
   or England, France
   67% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group H

1. Round of 32projected
   🇦🇷Argentina65% likely
   or Austria, Algeria
   68% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇪Belgium20% likely
   or USA, IR Iran
   89% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇵🇹Portugal23% likely
   or Switzerland, Colombia
   81% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England28% likely
   or France, Brazil
   73% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇫🇷France26% likely
   or Argentina, England
   70% to advance

If they advance from Group H as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🇫🇷France57% likely
   or Senegal, Norway
   71% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🇲🇽Mexico45% likely
   or Korea Republic, South Africa
   89% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England54% likely
   or Croatia, Panama
   74% to advance
4. Round of 32projected
   🇧🇪Belgium48% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   86% to advance
5. Round of 16projected
   🇩🇪Germany27% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   88% to advance
6. Round of 16projected
   🇲🇽Mexico29% likely
   or Brazil, Morocco
   85% to advance
7. Round of 16projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England49% likely
   or Croatia, Portugal
   74% to advance
8. Round of 16projected
   🇺🇸USA26% likely
   or Australia, Türkiye
   89% to advance
9. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇲🇦Morocco19% likely
   or Netherlands, Brazil
   82% to advance
10. Quarter-finalsResult · Won
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandWon 2–1
    Advanced to the next round
11. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇧🇷Brazil19% likely
    or Morocco, France
    78% to advance
12. Semi-finalsResult · Won
    🇫🇷FranceWon 2–0
    Advanced to the next round
13. Semi-finalsResult · Won
    🇧🇪BelgiumWon 2–0
    Advanced to the next round
14. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina43% likely
    or Portugal, Belgium
    71% to advance
15. Finalprojected
    🇫🇷France26% likely
    or Argentina, England
    70% to advance
16. Finalprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina32% likely
    or England, France
    66% to advance