Tunisia's road to the final

Tunisia finished 1st in Group F. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group F

1. Round of 32projected
   🇲🇦Morocco34% likely
   or Brazil, Scotland
   23% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇲🇽Mexico20% likely
   or Switzerland, Canada
   30% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇫🇷France40% likely
   or Germany, Netherlands
   13% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇪🇸Spain37% likely
   or Argentina, England
   9% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina23% likely
   or Spain, England
   7% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group F

1. Round of 32projected
   🇧🇷Brazil43% likely
   or Morocco, Scotland
   16% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇫🇷France22% likely
   or Senegal, Norway
   21% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England37% likely
   or Mexico, Croatia
   13% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina37% likely
   or Spain, Portugal
   11% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain29% likely
   or France, Argentina
   6% to advance

If they advance from Group F as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🇩🇪Germany44% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   26% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🇫🇷France58% likely
   or Senegal, Norway
   13% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🇲🇽Mexico45% likely
   or Korea Republic, Czechia
   27% to advance
4. Round of 32projected
   🇺🇸USA35% likely
   or Türkiye, Australia
   25% to advance
5. Round of 32projected
   🇨🇭Switzerland45% likely
   or Canada, Qatar
   29% to advance
6. Round of 16projected
   🇩🇪Germany30% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   24% to advance
7. Round of 16projected
   🇫🇷France49% likely
   or Norway, Senegal
   15% to advance
8. Round of 16projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England51% likely
   or Croatia, Portugal
   13% to advance
9. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇪Belgium39% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   21% to advance
10. Round of 16projected
    🇵🇹Portugal31% likely
    or Colombia, Croatia
    16% to advance
11. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇳🇱Netherlands19% likely
    or Brazil, Morocco
    16% to advance
12. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain46% likely
    or Argentina, England
    9% to advance
13. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇧🇷Brazil23% likely
    or Morocco, France
    22% to advance
14. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina47% likely
    or Spain, Belgium
    13% to advance
15. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇫🇷France41% likely
    or Brazil, Mexico
    26% to advance
16. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain44% likely
    or Argentina, Belgium
    9% to advance
17. Semi-finalsprojected
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England33% likely
    or Morocco, Mexico
    13% to advance
18. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina33% likely
    or Spain, Portugal
    0% to advance
19. Finalprojected
    🇫🇷France50% likely
    or Spain
    0% to advance
20. Finalprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina26% likely
    or France, Spain
    4% to advance