Tunisia's road to the final

Tunisia finished 1st in Group F. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group F

1. Round of 32projected
   🇲🇦Morocco34% likely
   or Brazil, Scotland
   23% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇲🇽Mexico20% likely
   or Switzerland, Canada
   31% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇫🇷France39% likely
   or Germany, Netherlands
   14% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇪🇸Spain41% likely
   or Argentina, England
   10% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina28% likely
   or England, Spain
   10% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group F

1. Round of 32projected
   🇧🇷Brazil43% likely
   or Morocco, Scotland
   16% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇫🇷France22% likely
   or Norway, Senegal
   21% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England38% likely
   or Mexico, Croatia
   14% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina37% likely
   or Portugal, Spain
   12% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain33% likely
   or France, England
   8% to advance

If they advance from Group F as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🇩🇪Germany44% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   26% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🇫🇷France58% likely
   or Norway, Senegal
   13% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🇲🇽Mexico46% likely
   or Korea Republic, Czechia
   27% to advance
4. Round of 32projected
   🇺🇸USA34% likely
   or Australia, Türkiye
   25% to advance
5. Round of 32projected
   🇨🇭Switzerland45% likely
   or Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina
   29% to advance
6. Round of 16projected
   🇩🇪Germany29% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   24% to advance
7. Round of 16projected
   🇫🇷France48% likely
   or Senegal, Norway
   15% to advance
8. Round of 16projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England45% likely
   or Croatia, Portugal
   15% to advance
9. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇪Belgium39% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   22% to advance
10. Round of 16projected
    🇵🇹Portugal28% likely
    or Colombia, Croatia
    17% to advance
11. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇳🇱Netherlands21% likely
    or Brazil, Morocco
    17% to advance
12. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain41% likely
    or England, Argentina
    11% to advance
13. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇲🇦Morocco21% likely
    or France, Brazil
    10% to advance
14. Quarter-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina54% likely
    or Belgium, Spain
    22% to advance
15. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇫🇷France31% likely
    or Netherlands, Brazil
    9% to advance
16. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇪🇸Spain39% likely
    or England, Belgium
    11% to advance
17. Semi-finalsprojected
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England23% likely
    or France, Netherlands
    12% to advance
18. Semi-finalsprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina75% likely
    or Algeria, England
    0% to advance
19. Finalprojected
    🇵🇹Portugal33% likely
    or Spain, Brazil
    33% to advance
20. Finalprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina26% likely
    or France, England
    10% to advance