Türkiye's road to the final

Türkiye finished 1st in Group D. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group D

1. Round of 32projected
   🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina19% likely
   or Qatar, Canada
   53% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇪Belgium37% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   37% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇪🇸Spain48% likely
   or England, Argentina
   16% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇫🇷France33% likely
   or Netherlands, Morocco
   22% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina24% likely
   or England, Spain
   14% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group D

1. Round of 32projected
   🇮🇷IR Iran30% likely
   or Egypt, Belgium
   44% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇦🇷Argentina54% likely
   or Spain, Uruguay
   21% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇵🇹Portugal23% likely
   or Switzerland, Colombia
   29% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England29% likely
   or France, Brazil
   20% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain31% likely
   or France, Argentina
   12% to advance

If they advance from Group D as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🇩🇪Germany43% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   42% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🇫🇷France59% likely
   or Senegal, Norway
   23% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🇵🇹Portugal47% likely
   or Colombia, Congo DR
   31% to advance
4. Round of 16projected
   🇩🇪Germany28% likely
   or Morocco, Brazil
   38% to advance
5. Round of 16projected
   🇫🇷France51% likely
   or Senegal, Norway
   24% to advance
6. Round of 16projected
   🇨🇭Switzerland33% likely
   or Canada, IR Iran
   39% to advance
7. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇳🇱Netherlands19% likely
   or Morocco, Brazil
   30% to advance
8. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina45% likely
   or Spain, Belgium
   21% to advance
9. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇪🇸Spain42% likely
   or Argentina, Belgium
   17% to advance
10. Semi-finalsprojected
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England29% likely
    or France, Brazil
    13% to advance
11. Finalprojected
    🇪🇸Spain31% likely
    or France, Netherlands
    20% to advance
12. Finalprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina28% likely
    or England, France
    15% to advance