Türkiye's road to the final

Türkiye finished 1st in Group D. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group D

1. Round of 32projected
   🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina19% likely
   or Qatar, Canada
   56% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇧🇪Belgium36% likely
   or IR Iran, Egypt
   39% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇪🇸Spain46% likely
   or England, Argentina
   18% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇫🇷France32% likely
   or Netherlands, Morocco
   24% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina26% likely
   or England, Spain
   16% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group D

1. Round of 32projected
   🇮🇷IR Iran30% likely
   or Egypt, Belgium
   45% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇦🇷Argentina54% likely
   or Spain, Uruguay
   23% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇵🇹Portugal21% likely
   or Colombia, Switzerland
   32% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England28% likely
   or France, Brazil
   22% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain28% likely
   or France, Argentina
   15% to advance

If they advance from Group D as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🇩🇪Germany44% likely
   or Ecuador, Côte d'Ivoire
   44% to advance
2. Round of 32projected
   🇫🇷France58% likely
   or Senegal, Norway
   25% to advance
3. Round of 32projected
   🇵🇹Portugal44% likely
   or Colombia, Congo DR
   33% to advance
4. Round of 16projected
   🇩🇪Germany30% likely
   or Morocco, Brazil
   39% to advance
5. Round of 16projected
   🇫🇷France50% likely
   or Senegal, Norway
   27% to advance
6. Round of 16projected
   🇨🇭Switzerland30% likely
   or Canada, Egypt
   45% to advance
7. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇳🇱Netherlands19% likely
   or Morocco, Brazil
   32% to advance
8. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina46% likely
   or Spain, Belgium
   22% to advance
9. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇪🇸Spain40% likely
   or Argentina, England
   19% to advance
10. Semi-finalsprojected
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England30% likely
    or France, Morocco
    25% to advance
11. Finalprojected
    🇫🇷France15% likely
    or Spain, Argentina
    32% to advance
12. Finalprojected
    🇦🇷Argentina26% likely
    or England, Spain
    18% to advance