Uzbekistan's road to the final

Uzbekistan finished 1st in Group K. Here is their projected path to the final and the most likely opponent at each knockout stage, based on simulating the rest of the bracket. Earlier rounds are decided; later opponents get less certain.

If they win Group K

1. Round of 32projected
   🇵🇦Panama21% likely
   or Croatia, Ghana
   31% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇨🇭Switzerland32% likely
   or Canada, IR Iran
   24% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina49% likely
   or Spain, Belgium
   11% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England27% likely
   or France, Morocco
   9% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain38% likely
   or France, Argentina
   11% to advance

If they finish 2nd in Group K

1. Round of 32projected
   🇭🇷Croatia38% likely
   or England, Panama
   24% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇪🇸Spain59% likely
   or Argentina, Uruguay
   10% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇧🇪Belgium25% likely
   or USA, IR Iran
   21% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇫🇷France35% likely
   or Netherlands, Brazil
   11% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina28% likely
   or Spain, England
   4% to advance

If they advance from Group K as a best third

1. Round of 32projected
   🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England59% likely
   or Croatia, Panama
   14% to advance
2. Round of 16projected
   🇲🇽Mexico33% likely
   or Korea Republic, South Africa
   25% to advance
3. Quarter-finalsprojected
   🇲🇦Morocco20% likely
   or Brazil, France
   13% to advance
4. Semi-finalsprojected
   🇦🇷Argentina35% likely
   or Spain, Portugal
   9% to advance
5. Finalprojected
   🇪🇸Spain35% likely
   or France, Netherlands
   9% to advance